Non Bank Financial Institution
Featured Piece
“When Everyone Runs for the Exit,” By Professor Lasse Pedersen, The International Journal of Central Banking, Working Paper, (August 2009). ABSTRACT
The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.
Public Appearances
“Testimony before the House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services: Hedge Funds and Systemic Risk in the Financial Markets,” by Professor Stephen Brown, March 13, 2007.
Papers
ABSTRACT (Click Here for Paper)
The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.
The dangers of shouting "fire" in a crowded theater are well understood, but the dangers of rushing to the exit in the financial markets are more complex. Yet, the two events share several features, and I analyze why people crowd into theaters and trades, why they run, what determines the risk, whether to return to the theater or trade when the dust settles, and how much to pay for assets (or tickets) in light of this risk. These theoretical considerations shed light on the recent global liquidity crisis and, in particular, the quant event of 2007.
ABSTRACT (Click Here for Paper)
This paper presents a discussion of the key issues facing the financial regulation of insurance companies in the post-crisis era. While the moral hazard created in the financial sector by provision of financial guarantee insurance is difficult to overstate, we focus on the issues concerning insurers' excessive provision of insurance, under-capitalization, and related systemic risks. We argue that these systemic risks stem from a too interconnected to fail problem, manifested most perversely in the case of A.I.G. We provide a way to measure the systemic risk contributions of insurers based on market data and calculate this measure (called Marginal Expected Shortfall or MES) for insurers in the United States during the period 2004-2007. We show that several insurers ranked highly on this measure compared to systemically risky banks over this period.
This paper presents a discussion of the key issues facing the financial regulation of insurance companies in the post-crisis era. While the moral hazard created in the financial sector by provision of financial guarantee insurance is difficult to overstate, we focus on the issues concerning insurers' excessive provision of insurance, under-capitalization, and related systemic risks. We argue that these systemic risks stem from a too interconnected to fail problem, manifested most perversely in the case of A.I.G. We provide a way to measure the systemic risk contributions of insurers based on market data and calculate this measure (called Marginal Expected Shortfall or MES) for insurers in the United States during the period 2004-2007. We show that several insurers ranked highly on this measure compared to systemically risky banks over this period.
ABSTRACT (Click Here for Paper)
Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow-performance relationships. Investors either lack this information or regard it as immaterial. These findings suggest that regulators should account for the endogenous production of information and the marginal benefit of disclosure to different investment clienteles.
Mandatory disclosure is a regulatory tool intended to allow market participants to assess operational risk. We examine the value of disclosure through the controversial SEC requirement, since overturned, which required major hedge funds to register as investment advisors and file Form ADV disclosures. Leverage and ownership structures suggest that lenders and equity investors were already aware of operational risk. However, operational risk does not mediate flow-performance relationships. Investors either lack this information or regard it as immaterial. These findings suggest that regulators should account for the endogenous production of information and the marginal benefit of disclosure to different investment clienteles.
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