Opinion

How to Lead in Ambiguous Times

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Because you can’t be fully agile in ambiguous times, be a steward of your organization.
By Ian Bremmer
A glance at today’s headlines leaves little doubt that we have entered a new era of geopolitical turbulence. Acts of terror and violence, humanitarian crises, and public health emergencies are rarely localized events. Instead, these shocks transcend borders, presenting global challenges. Just as one crisis fades, another rises to take its place. Adding further complexity, today’s enemy (unlike in that previous period of great geopolitical uncertainty, the Cold War) is often unseen or unknown.

Of course, it’s not just our problems that have become global. Most mainstream businesses have operations and business units spread far and wide, and an eye perpetually turned toward expansion. For company leaders, then, geopolitical uncertainty raises critical questions: How can you make decisions, particularly long-range investment decisions in far-flung parts of the world, when so much is in flux? How do you lead your organization through ambiguity to success?

Economists tend to focus on growth in determining the attractiveness of an investment. That makes sense when the international backdrop is reasonably stable. For instance, in the pre–financial crisis environment, you could successfully choose an emerging market to invest in by throwing a dart at a map. But in a more turbulent world, these countries are becoming increasingly differentiated—in their economic health and potential, as well as in their particular rules of the road and political threats to investments and foreign business activity. On top of this, many emerging market growth rates are only on par with those of developed states, and many developed states face political uncertainty more characteristic of emerging markets. The categorization is breaking down, making it much more difficult to engage in universal strategies.

Read full article as published in Strategy + Business

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Ian Bremmer is a Global Research Professor.