Expectation Puzzles, Time-varying Risk Premia, and Dynamic Models of the Term Structure
September 18, 2000
Qiang Dai, and Kenneth Singleton
ABSTRACT
Though linear projections of returns on the slope of the yield curve have contradicted the implications of the
traditional "expectations theory," we show that these findings are not puzzling relative to a large class
of richer dynamic terms structure models. Specifically, we are able to match all of the key empirical findings
reported by Fama and Bliss and Campbell and Shiller, among others, within large subclasses of affine and quadractic-Gaussian
term structure models. Key to this matching are parameterizations of the market prices of risk that let us separately
"control" the shape of the mean yield curve and the correlation structure of excess returns with the
slope of the yield curve. The risk premiums have a simple form consistent with Fama's findings on the predictability
of forward rates, and are shown to also be consistent with interest rate, feedback rules used by a monetary authority
in setting monetary policy.
Subject: Investment/Fixed Income; Economics/Macroeconomics; Investments/Predictability of Asset Returns
Classification: Empirical/Theoretical
Qiang Dai
Institution: Stern School of Business, New York University
Email: qdai@stern.nyu.edu
Telephone: (212) 998-0358
Home Page: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~qdai
Kenneth J. Singleton
Institution: Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Email: kenneths@future.stanford.edu
Telephone: (650) 723-5753
Home Page: http://www.stanford.edu/~kenneths
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