# New Research Finds an Opponent’s Positive Momentum May Cause You to Fail

1 Research Highlights December 5, 2019 ![Nathan Pettit](/sites/default/files/styles/246w/public/assets/images/Nathan%20Pettit%20Headshot%20Article.jpg?itok=UgjeI8X8)>

There has been a longstanding belief in the “hot-hand” phenomenon: a person who experiences successful outcomes has a greater chance of experiencing future successful outcomes. However, this notion fails to take into account the impact that a person’s positive momentum may have on the cognitive and physical performance of their opponent and how this may contribute to one’s rise. In “[The Impact of Dynamic Status Changes Within Competitive Rank-Ordered Hierarchies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/46/23011),” NYU Stern Professor [Nathan Pettit](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/nathan-pettit), Fuqua School of Business Professor Hemant Kakkar and London Business School Professor Niro Sivanathan explore how an opponent’s rise in a dynamic and competitive hierarchy over time can affect an actor’s psychology and performance.

Across six studies, including two large, real-world data sets and more than 5.3 million observations, the co-authors tested their hypothesis and found that an opponent’s positive momentum negatively affects a person’s cognitive and physical performance due to feelings of self-threat.

Key takeaways from the study include: - An individual’s performance in both cognitive and physical competitions is negatively impacted when facing an opponent with positive momentum.
- An opponent’s winning streak results in a positive projection of his/her future rank, which in turn increases the psychological threat felt by his/her competition.

“Christian Doppler’s observation that motion of a source affects the experience of a stationary observer appears to extend well beyond sound and light waves,” write the co-authors. This research demonstrates that a “hot streak” by one’s opponent elicits psychological threat in their competition, and, in turn, impairs this actor’s performance. This research also offers another significant perspective on the “hot-hand” fallacy toward understanding success.

This paper, “[The Impact of Dynamic Status Changes Within Competitive Rank-Ordered Hierarchies](https://www.pnas.org/content/116/46/23011),” was recently published in the *Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences*. ## More from Nathan Pettit

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- [Professor Nathan Pettit's new research on status momentum is mentioned ](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/experience-stern/news/professor-nathan-pettit-s-new-research-status-momentum-mentioned)