# Professor Edward Altman discusses the junk-bond default rate, drawing from his research

1 Faculty News December 6, 2015 ![Wall Street Journal logo](/sites/default/files/styles/246w/public/assets/images/wsjlogo.jpg?itok=5Qt0z3WX)>

Excerpt from [The Wall Street Journal](http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-missing-the-warning-from-junk-1449397806) -- "The junk-bond default rate rose to 2.6% from 2.1% this year and will likely jump to 4.3% in 2016, breaching the 30-year average of 3.8% for the first time since 2009, said New York University Finance Professor [Edward Altman](http://www.stern.nyu.edu/faculty/bio/edward-altman), inventor of the most commonly used default-prediction formula. ... 'In most high-default periods we’ve seen in the past, the rise in default rates precedes a recession,' said Mr. Altman, who has been studying the subject for more than 50 years."

[Read more](http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-stock-market-is-missing-the-warning-from-junk-1449397806)