# Professor Paul Wachtel explains why the Trump administration’s trade policy could erode confidence in the American economy

1 Faculty News June 30, 2018 ![Salon logo](/sites/default/files/styles/246w/public/assets/images/salon-logo.jpg?itok=bcLmPlsV)>

Excerpt from [Salon](https://www.salon.com/2018/06/30/that-may-not-be-the-recession-looming-out-there-in-november-but-we-can-see-it-from-here/) -- "Recessions tend to start after the Fed fights rising inflation by increasing interest rates. Interest rates are abnormally low now, so I see the Fed moving to normalize them at a faster pace in 2018. That could dim the economic outlook for 2019. ... \[The Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee will raise its target rate in 2018\] three times, and 2.25 percent."

[Read more](https://www.salon.com/2018/06/30/that-may-not-be-the-recession-looming-out-there-in-november-but-we-can-see-it-from-here/)