# United States: Why Trump Can Still Win

1 Opinion October 21, 2020 Stern in the News ![Thomas Philippon Headshot](/sites/default/files/styles/246w/public/assets/images/Thomas%20Philippon%20230%20x%20260.jpg?itok=mpcvI7hb) By Thomas Philippon >

Scalded cat fears cold water. Two weeks before the November 2016 election, Hillary Clinton was 7 points ahead of Donald Trump in national voting intentions, and an 86% chance of winning according to Nate Silver's “FiveThirtyEight” site. To figure out what this means, take a pencil, write the days of the week on 7 pieces of paper, and draw one. If it's "Thursday," you've drawn the scenario where Trump wins.

Today, Joe Biden has an 11 point lead nationally and an 88% chance of winning, according to "538". Trump would therefore have a 1 in 8 chance of serving a second term. What to think of these figures? Are they reliable? To answer, let's start by analyzing what happened in 2016. How did Clinton's 7 point lead melt like snow in the sun?

Read the full [*Les Echos* article](https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/opinion-etats-unis-pourquoi-trump-peut-encore-gagner-1257799).

---
*Thomas Philippon is Max L. Heine Professor of Finance.*## More from Thomas Philippon

- [The US Inflation Reduction Act: How the EU Is Affected and How It Should React.](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/us-inflation-reduction-act-how-eu-affected-and-how-it-should-react)
- [The UK Reined in Rupert Murdoch. Why Can’t We Stop Vincent Bolloré in France?](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/the-uk-reined-in-rupert-murdoch-why-can-t-we-stop-vincent-bollor-in-france)
- [How Should We Assess Economic Growth?](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/how-should-we-assess-economic-growth)
- [Economics and Politics of Measures to Stop Financing Russian Aggression Against Ukraine](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/economics-and-politics-of-measures-to-stop-financing-russian-aggression-against-ukraine)
- [Consensus For the Common Good](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/consensus-common-good)