# The U.S. Treasury’s Backdoor Stimulus Is Hampering the Fed.

1 Opinion August 20, 2024 Project Syndicate ![Nouriel Roubini](/sites/default/files/styles/246w/public/assets/images/nroubini.jpg?itok=R6F5VNmo)By Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Miran

>

The US Federal Reserve has moved mountains to control inflation, which in July fell below 3% for the first time since 2021. Unfortunately, the Fed finds itself working at cross purposes with the US Treasury, whose debt-issuance strategy has been providing backdoor interest-rate cuts, keeping inflation above the Fed’s target range.

By shortening its issuance profile to reduce long-term interest rates, the Treasury has delivered economic stimulus equivalent to a one-point cut in the Fed’s policy rate. Moreover, forward guidance in the Treasury’s latest quarterly refunding announcement indicates that this backdoor quantitative easing (QE) will continue to frustrate the Fed’s own efforts and compromise its functions.

Typically, the Treasury aims for 15-20% of outstanding debt to be in short-term bills, with the rest in intermediate- and long-term debt, called coupons. But this share has risen and remains well above any reasonable threshold: as much as 70% of new debt raised over the last year came from short-term bills, pushing the total well above 20%.

Read the full [*Project Syndicate* article](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-treasury-backdoor-stimulus-while-fed-is-trying-to-tighten-policy-by-nouriel-roubini-and-stephen-miran-2024-08).
\_\_\_
*Nouriel Roubini is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and International Business and the Robert Stansky Research Faculty Fellow.*

## More from Nouriel Roubini

- [Oil Shocks Are No Longer So Shocking.](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/opinion/oil-shocks-are-no-longer-so-shocking)
- [Four Scenarios for the Iran War.](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/opinion/four-scenarios-iran-war)
- [U.S. Escalation Is the Most Likely Scenario in Iran.](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/opinion/us-escalation-most-likely-scenario-iran)
- [Kevin Warsh Is in for a Rude Awakening.](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/opinion/kevin-warsh-rude-awakening)
- [The Coming Crypto Apocalypse.](https://www.stern.nyu.edu/index%2ephp/experience-stern/faculty-research/coming-crypto-apocalypse)