Yes, if one looks forward to the final appeals decision. But, although my expectation is the same, there is much more uncertainty now than there was before the start of the trial on the final outcomes.

What remedies proposals have been made?

The following proposals have been made:

1. Impose various restrictions on the contracts that Microsoft can write with sellers of complementary goods and with competitors.
2. Force Microsoft to disclose the APIs that allow it to include Internet Explorer in the operating system.
3. Force Microsoft to give away the Windows source code or license it to bidders in an auction.
4. Break up Microsoft according to lines of business (operating systems and applications).
5. Break up Microsoft in three identical parts, with each part containing an equal amount of each business (not clear how to break Bill Gates in three identical parts).
6. Break up Microsoft along lines of business (operating systems and applications) and then break the operating systems division in three identical parts.

Unless MS does much better in its presentation in the second part of the trial, I expect that the District Court will find MS guilty of some of the accusations. I also expect that an across-the-board conviction is likely to be reversed by the DC Court of Appeals.

What are the pros and cons of each category of remedy?

The following table assesses the costs and benefits of each of the proposed remedies and my assessment of the probability that each of these remedies would be imposed and that they would be upheld on appeal. The probabilities of the various remedies actions add to 50% because I believe that Microsoft has a 50% probability of acquittal.
 

Criteria --------- Remedies	Proportional to conviction	Does it prevent MS from repeating the crime?	Does it help consumers?	Does it create the least interference in the rest of MS and in the industry?	Probability of remedy imposed and upheld
Impose conduct restrictions on contracts	Easy to tailor according to the violation	Yes, if MS is convicted of anti- competitive exclusionary contracts	Prevents vertical effects. Does not prevent horizontal effects.	Yes	30%
Force MS to disclose APIs that allow IE to be in OS	Solves all technological bundling problems	Yes, if MS is convicted of illegally bundling IE with Windows	Prevents vertical effects. Does not prevent horizontal effects.	Yes	8%
Force MS to give away or license Windows source code	Severe remedy that takes away the intellectual property of MS	Yes, for mono- polization. No, for other crimes	Is likely to create incom- patibilities and reduce consumers’ surplus. It will increase the cost of applications.	No. Severely decreases the incentive for innovation	5%
Break MS according to lines of business (operating systems and applications)	Very severe remedy; dispro- portionate to crime; its function can be accomplished by disclosure of APIs instead	Prevents vertical effects. Does not prevent horizontal effects.	Unclear	No. Very significant upheaval for MS and the industry.	5%
Break MS in 3 identical parts	Very severe remedy; dispro- portionate to crime;	Yes, for mono- polization. No, for other crimes.	Consumers lose significantly because of lack of compatibility. Unlikely to result in significantly lower prices	No. Very significant upheaval for MS and the industry.	1%
Break MS along lines of business and then break the operating systems division in 3 identical parts	Very severe remedy; dispro- portionate to crime;	Yes, for mono- polization and bundling. No, for other crimes.	Consumers lose significantly because of lack of compatibility. Unlikely to result in significantly lower prices	Very significant upheaval for MS and the industry. May eliminate MS as a serious player	1%

If you were put in charge of the case, which proposal would you enforce?

If I was in charge, I would impose various contract restrictions.
 

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