Why Italy’s days in the eurozone may be numbered
– August 31, 2011
By Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics and International Business & Robert Stansky Research Faculty Fellow
...Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone.
November 10, 2011
With interest rates on its sovereign debt surging well above seven per cent, there is a rising risk that Italy may soon lose market access. Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt of €1,900bn. That would partially address its “stock” problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its “flow” problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity.
To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone.
Read full article as published in the Financial Times.
With interest rates on its sovereign debt surging well above seven per cent, there is a rising risk that Italy may soon lose market access. Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt of €1,900bn. That would partially address its “stock” problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its “flow” problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity.
To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone.
Read full article as published in the Financial Times.
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- "Greece’s Private Creditors Are the Lucky Ones," 3.9.12
- "Italy’s Debt Must Be Restructured," 11.29.11
- "Why Italy’s days in the eurozone may be numbered," 11.10.11
- "Greece should default and abandon the euro," 9.19.11
