Prof. Edward Altman says the euro's end game is Italy
— June 16, 2012
Excerpt from Barron's -- "Two years ago, Altman and Amsterdam-based professor Herbert Rijken hatched a model that makes a 'bottom-up' prediction of sovereign risk. Their 'Z-Score' model aggregates the average probability of default of listed nonfinancial and financial companies, whose health is central to that of the sovereign. Altman's model correctly predicted Europe's current hierarchy of risk: Spain and Portugal on the bottom, with Italy a bit higher."