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Professor Edward Altman discusses the junk-bond default rate, drawing from his research

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Excerpt from The Wall Street Journal -- "The junk-bond default rate rose to 2.6% from 2.1% this year and will likely jump to 4.3% in 2016, breaching the 30-year average of 3.8% for the first time since 2009, said New York University Finance Professor Edward Altman, inventor of the most commonly used default-prediction formula. ... 'In most high-default periods we’ve seen in the past, the rise in default rates precedes a recession,' said Mr. Altman, who has been studying the subject for more than 50 years."

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