Where Will the Global Bond Rout Hit Growth and Equities?

A sharp rise in bond yields across key economies like the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France has raised new concerns about the fiscal and financial risks that lay ahead. A common view is that this bond “rout” could augur severe disruptions to economic growth and pain for US and global stock markets.

But while it is true that yields have risen to levels unseen in almost two decades, the relationship between bond yields, economic growth, and stock markets is more complex than this naive view implies. After all, the recent rise in yields could reflect any number of different and contradictory factors.

Consider some of the obvious ones. First, higher inflation stemming from supply shocks—renewed protectionism and war-driven disruptions to the flow of oil—could push nominal yields higher and be stagflationary: reducing growth, increasing inflation, and pushing down equity prices.

Read the full Project Syndicate article.
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Nouriel Roubini is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and International Business and the Robert Stansky Research Faculty Fellow.