Why Is the Global Economy So Resilient?

Despite the rising risks, uncertainties, and large negative supply shocks of the last two years, stock markets and the overall global economy have held up quite well. Following the shock of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” (April 2) tariffs in 2025 came this year’s Iran War, which caused the largest energy shock since the oil crises of the 1970s.

Yet, according to International Monetary Fund data, global growth was as high in 2025 as it was in 2024 (3.5%), and global inflation was lower in 2025 than in 2024. And while global growth is expected to slow to 3% this year, it is projected to recover (to 3.4%) in 2027, with inflation returning toward its 2025 level in 2027 after rising in 2026.

What explains the global economy’s apparent resilience, and what are the biggest downside risks to the relatively benign outlook for 2027?

Read the full Project Syndicate article.
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Nouriel Roubini is a Professor Emeritus of Economics and International Business and the Robert Stansky Research Faculty Fellow.