Will AI Stimulate The Cooling Economy? Not Any Time Soon

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To really boost growth, we need a “killer app” to drive the use of AI, much in the way that instant messaging and email were killer apps that exploited broadband connections.
By Robert Seamans
Today’s economic growth numbers were underwhelming. Many economists predict that our economy will continue to grow throughout 2019, but that this economic growth will be at a lower rate than it was in 2018. Artificial intelligence will likely help boost economic growth in the long run, but will have little to no effect on economic growth over the next few years.

The change in gross domestic product (GDP) is a well accepted metric for measuring economic growth. According to recently released data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, third quarter GDP growth this year was 1.9 percent, down from second quarter growth of 2.0 percent and first quarter GDP growth of 3.1 percent. According to many predictions, we should expect annual GDP growth numbers in the two percent range for the next few years. For example, the IMF predicts GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020, and the Conference Board forecasts GDP growth of 2.5 percent in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020.

These numbers are well short of the six percent GDP growth President Trump once predicted in 2017 (though in line with predictions by other economists in 2017). These numbers are also below the GDP growth numbers from prior decades, when the U.S. economy regularly grew at over three or four percent per year.

Read the full Forbes article.

Robert Seamans is Associate Professor of Management and Organizations