Opinion
Bermuda Triangle Of Valuation: These 3 Issues Can Sink A Business Valuation
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Valuation practice will be better served if we had an honest and open discussion of how we deal with these structural problems, because they remain the biggest barriers to good valuations.
By Aswath Damodaran
Studies have shown that sizable numbers of business owners look to transfer their ownership interests in the next decade, and a major concern for many is whether they’ll get out of the business what they expect. Gaps in the valuations of businesses are a leading cause in busted deals, which is unsurprising, given that sellers, buyers, bankers and other advisors have their own ways of valuing businesses. Three problems in particular can sink the valuation process. Business owners and valuation professionals alike should honestly and openly discuss them if they seek good valuations.
The Bermuda Triangle of Valuation
It is true that valuation, at its core, is simple and should be easy to implement, but it is often mangled in practice. While some valuation malpractice reflects a misunderstanding of the basic principles of valuation, I think that the bigger culprit is the valuation process and three problems that are embedded in it: the biases that analysts bring into their valuations, their unwillingness to grapple and deal with the uncertainties that they face when valuing businesses and the ease of access to data and tools that allow them to build in complexities into valuation models.
Bias
In an ideal valuation, you would start with no preconceptions about the companies that you are analyzing and then make your best judgments on how much value to attach to them. In practice, you almost never start with a clean slate, as everything that you have read or heard about a company will have already created perceptions about it that will affect your valuation. Ironically, the more you learn about a company and the more exposure you have to its management, the more entrenched the bias becomes. This bias is made worse if you are being paid to do the valuation as an appraiser, banker or expert witness, since the client paying for the service often has a “value” in mind that he or she would like to see, and you will feel pressure, either implicitly or explicitly, to deliver that value. At the risk of stating the obvious, all valuations are biased, with the only questions being to what degree and in which direction.
Read full article as published in Forbes
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Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education.
The Bermuda Triangle of Valuation
It is true that valuation, at its core, is simple and should be easy to implement, but it is often mangled in practice. While some valuation malpractice reflects a misunderstanding of the basic principles of valuation, I think that the bigger culprit is the valuation process and three problems that are embedded in it: the biases that analysts bring into their valuations, their unwillingness to grapple and deal with the uncertainties that they face when valuing businesses and the ease of access to data and tools that allow them to build in complexities into valuation models.
Bias
In an ideal valuation, you would start with no preconceptions about the companies that you are analyzing and then make your best judgments on how much value to attach to them. In practice, you almost never start with a clean slate, as everything that you have read or heard about a company will have already created perceptions about it that will affect your valuation. Ironically, the more you learn about a company and the more exposure you have to its management, the more entrenched the bias becomes. This bias is made worse if you are being paid to do the valuation as an appraiser, banker or expert witness, since the client paying for the service often has a “value” in mind that he or she would like to see, and you will feel pressure, either implicitly or explicitly, to deliver that value. At the risk of stating the obvious, all valuations are biased, with the only questions being to what degree and in which direction.
Read full article as published in Forbes
___
Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair in Finance Education.