United States: Why Trump Can Still Win
— October 21, 2020
By Thomas Philippon
Today, Joe Biden has an 11 point lead nationally and an 88% chance of winning, according to "538". Trump would therefore have a 1 in 8 chance of serving a second term. What to think of these figures? Are they reliable? To answer, let's start by analyzing what happened in 2016. How did Clinton's 7 point lead melt like snow in the sun?
Read the full Les Echos article.
Thomas Philippon is Max L. Heine Professor of Finance.