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Geopolitical Risk

The obvious impact of politics on the global economy has made the topic of geopolitical risk extremely important. To what extent are political risks and economic risks related and around what subjects? The Volatility and Risk Institute has embarked on a study of geopolitical risk and its relation to financial risks. This research seeks to understand the sources and consequences of geopolitical risks. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice.

When specific measures of geopolitical risk are derived either by VRI or other investigators, these will be published on VLAB to help economic decision making.

Our latest research on Geopolitical Risk

  • Barberá, Pablo, Andreu Casas, Jonathan Nagler, Patrick J. Egan, Richard Bonneau, John T. Jost, and Joshua A. Tucker. “Who Leads? Who Follows? Measuring Issue Attention and Agenda Setting by Legislators and the Mass Public Using Social Media Data,” American Political Science Review 113, no. 4 (2019): 883-901.
  • Engle, Robert, and Cristiano Zazzara, “Systemic Risk in the Financial System: Capital Shortfalls under Brexit, the US Elections and the Italian Referendum,” The Journal of Credit Risk (2018), 14(4):97-120.
  • Guess, Andrew, Jonathan Nagler, and Joshua Tucker. "Less than you think: Prevalence and predictors of fake news dissemination on Facebook." Science Advances 5, no. 1 (2019).
  • Philippon, Thomas, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, and Dimitri Vayanos “The Analytics of the Greek Crisis” with, NBER Macroannuals, Spring 2016.
  • Philippon, Thomas. The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets. Harvard University Press, 2019.
  • Richard L. Revesz, Michael A. Livermore, The Globalization of Cost-Benefit Analysis in Environmental Policy, (Oxford University Press, 2013). 
  • Subrahmanyam, Marti, Loriana Pelizzon, Davide Tomio, and Jun Uno, "Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity and the ECB Intervention: Deux ex Machina?", Journal of Financial Economics, October 2016.
  • Tucker, Joshua, Yannis Theocharis, Margaret E. Roberts, and Pablo Barberá. "From liberation to turmoil: social media and emocracy," Journal of Democracy 28, no. 4 (2017): 46-59.
  • Whitelaw, Robert and Jennifer Carpenter, “The Development of China's Stock Market and Stakes for the Global Economy, 2017, Annual Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 9, pp. 233-257.